BearPaws Weather

Atlantic Tropical Desk

Atlantic · Caribbean · Gulf of America — Your One Stop Shop for Tropical Weather Information

Local --
UTC --
NHC refreshing

Active Atlantic Systems

No active Atlantic cyclones
Quiet basin. NHC is not issuing advisories on an Atlantic cyclone right now. Watch the 7-day outlook and formation-probability maps for the next wave.

7-Day Graphical Outlook

NHC TWO
Atlantic 7-day Tropical Weather Outlook
Courtesy NHC · Tap To Open Interactive Outlook
Atlantic 2-day outlook
2-Day TWO
48-hour TC formation probability
0–48h Formation Probability

NHC Official Text

Outlook And Discussion
<b><a href="/text/refresh/MIATWOSAT+shtml/162330_MIATWOSAT.shtml">en Español</a></b>

000
ABNT20 KNHC 162329
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL98):
A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of
Bermuda continues to produce some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Although environmental conditions are marginal in
the area, some additional development is possible over the next few
days while the system moves slowly westward, and then possibly
southward over the subtropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Source: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml

Additional Supporting Links · Spaghetti Plots, Ensemble Models, & AI Guidance Forecasts

The Desks On One Hop

Mike’s Weather Page

Open Desk

Basin Overview, Vorticity, Shear, & The Model Dump List

Weather Nerds

Open Desk

GFS / EURO / AI / CMC / ICON - Spaghetti Tracks

Track The Tropics

Open Desk

Storm Pages, Satellite Sectors, Genesis Maps

Tropical Tidbits

Open Desk

Deterministic Globals & Hurricane Models

Google DeepMind Weather Lab

Open Desk

GraphCast / GenCast AI Tracks vs NWP

National Hurricane Center

Open Desk

Official Forecasts, Watches, & Warnings

Windy

Open Desk

Interactive Wind, Gusts, & Rain Over SW Florida

PolarWx Tropical

Open Desk

Superensemble, Recon, Cone Overlays

Global Models — Courtesy Of Tropical Tidbits Weather Page

Links Always Point At The Latest Run

Tropical Atlantic Satellite

NESDIS / GOES-East
IR Band 13
IR Band 13 · GOES-East

Environment — Shear, Vorticity, Winds

Diagnostics
NHC / TAFB Atlantic Analysis
NHC / TAFB Atlantic Analysis
850 Mb Vorticity
850 Mb Vorticity
CIMSS 850–200 Mb Shear
CIMSS 850–200 Mb Shear
Low-Level Convergence
Low-Level Convergence
CIMSS Low-Level Winds / IR
CIMSS Low-Level Winds / IR
CIMSS Upper-Level Winds
CIMSS Upper-Level Winds

2026 Atlantic Names

Active Name Highlighted
Arthur
Bertha
Cristobal
Dolly
Edouard
Fay
Gonzalo
Hanna
Isaias
Josephine
Kyle
Laura
Marco
Nana
Omar
Paulette
Rene
Sally
Teddy
Vicky
Wilfred